Orioles Composite Prospect Rankings

Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are the consensus #1 and #2 Orioles prospects entering the 2014 season.

Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are the consensus #1 and #2 Orioles prospects entering the 2014 season.

Baseball Prospect season - when national and local publications release their top prospect lists - is just about over with.  Last year, I combined the Orioles top 10 lists from various publications into one master list.  I have done the same this year using the rankings provided by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels at Minor League Ball, Keith Law at ESPN, and FanGraphs.  I dropped the Orioles Hangout list from this one largely because I wanted to compare apples to apples and keep the master list to just national publications.  It is no reflection on the quality of their list and the fact that they just cover the Orioles means they are often more keyed in on some sleeper prospects than the national publications.

The results are:

  1. Kevin Gausman (RHP; AAA/Majors)
  2. Dylan Bundy (RHP; DNP)
  3. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP; AA)
  4. Hunter Harvey (RHP; RK/Low A)
  5. Jonathan Schoop (2B; AAA/Majors)
  6. Mike Wright (RHP; AA/AAA)
  7. Tim Berry (LHP; High A)
  8. Henry Urrutia (OF/DH; AA/AAA/Majors)
  9. Chance Sisco (C; RK/Low A)
  10. Michael Ohlman (C/DH; High A)

Not many surprises on the list at first glance.  Tim Berry appears to be a bit higher than I would have imagined, but his solid Arizona Fall League performance no doubt helped his cause.

From a level standpoint, three of the top ten (Gausman, Schoop, and Urrutia) should contribute to the parent club sometime this summer.  Bundy and Wright have outside chances of doing so.  Bundy is unlikely due to the fact that he is unlikely to even pitch in minor league games until June coming off of Tommy John surgery while Wright would have to leapfrog much of the depth in front of him at AAA to land a spot in the Major League bullpen sometime during the 2014 season.  Rodriguez, Berry and Ohlman are 2015 arrivals at the earliest, while Harvey and Sisco are low a ways away.  It looks like a solid mix in terms of arrival times.

The results (in table format) are below.  It should be noted that MLB.com has presumably not updated their O's prospect list for 2014 given that on their national list, Bundy was ranked ahead of Gausman.  I will go with this for now and update if needed.

Composite Prospect Chart.png

There were differing opinions as you can see between Bundy & Gausman at #1 and #2, as well as between E-Rod and Harvey at #3 and #4, making for two tight races.  Although some guys flip flopped one slot between lists, overall the top five of Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, Harvey, and Schoop was virtually agreed upon on all of the lists.

Urrutia was all over the place, ranging from not appearing in three Top 10's to 5th ranking by Sickels.  That is not surprising given his advanced age (27).  Some evaluators won't consider a 27 year old for their lists regardless of the circumstances (in Henry's case, the fact he is newly arrived from Cuba.

In addition to the team list, I am also tracking Orioles representation on Top 100 lists.  However, only three such lists are currently available so I'll hold off on posting that table until a later date.  As a tease, however, using the lists released by BP, Law, and MLB.com, the Orioles have five "consensus" Top 100 prospects:  Gausman (21), Bundy (22), Rodriguez (57), Harvey (70 - 75 range), and Schoop (95 - 100 range).

If one assumes an average of three prospects in the top 100 per team (100 prospects divided by 30 teams), the Orioles are well ahead of the curve in that regard.  They are also ahead of the competition by virtue of having two players in the top one-third.  It will be interesting to see if that holds up once the other lists are released by their respective publications.